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Cultivate Labs Blog

From the team shipping AI forecasting and sensemaking systems used by government, defense, finance, and research teams.

Scenario Planning as a System, Not an Event
Latest Post

Scenario Planning as a System, Not an Event

By Adam Siegel · Feb 27, 2026

Scenario planning has shaped corporate strategy and investment research for decades, but in most organizations it remains an episodic exercise that quickly ages as the world moves on. What changes when scenarios become living models, continuously tested against measurable drivers and updated probabilities, is not just the analysis but the quality and timing of the decisions that follow.

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The Best Is Not Enough

By Ben Golden · Jul 16, 2015

The Best Is Not Enough

Barry Ritholtz has written a curious column titled The 'Wisdom of Crowds' Is Not That Wise for Bloomberg View, which criticizes prediction markets. This is not a new view for Ritholtz, as he reminds us by linking to six blog posts critical of prediction markets each written by...Barry Ritholtz. Indeed Ritholtz has made it his mission to find instances of prediction markets 'failing', and has found six of them.

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I, Benthinkin

By Ben Golden · Jul 02, 2015

I, Benthinkin

The challenge was daunting—Inkling users start with five thousand Inkles--while the top forecasters have accrued hundreds of millions (in one case billions).

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