Cultivate Labs Blog
Discussing how crowd forecasting, internal crowdfunding, and other new workplace trends can be used to improve the #futureofwork
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By Faith Powell on Dec 05, 2023
Turning to crowdsourced forecasting when you’re not sure who or what to listen to
With the rise of AI, disinformation in mass media will only continue to grow and evolve. Turning our attention to crowd forecasting is one way that we can better understand, monitor, and respond to global uncertainty – together.
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By Vanessa Pineda on Nov 06, 2023
New whitepaper: A roadmap for using AI in crowdsourced forecasting
New whitepaper explores how to use AI across different aspects of crowdsourced forecasting, including question development, reporting, engagement, and forecasting.
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By Faith Powell on Nov 03, 2023
Cultivate Forecasts platform now features AI-generated forecast rationale summaries
We released a new feature on our forecasting platform: AI-powered forecast rationale summaries using Anthropic’s Claude2. Read about how forecasters and analysts are already using this capability.
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By Faith Powell on Oct 05, 2023
Team forecasting lessons from Cultivate Labs
As a company, we hold small group forecasting sessions regularly. We’ve learned a few tactics to help other teams surface diverse viewpoints and avoid groupthink. Here are some recommendations for any teams forecasting together.
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By Faith Powell on Oct 02, 2023
Google experts join a forecasting meetup about the future of AI hosted by Cultivate’s INFER
Earlier this month, one of our client programs INFER – the crowd forecasting program supporting the U.S. Government – hosted a special forecasting event about the future of AI. The event was attended by select INFER forecasters and nearly two dozen forecasting enthusiasts who work at Google, joining in a personal capacity.
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By Adam Siegel on Aug 22, 2023
Announcing a new service: Issue Decomposition Workshops
We are launching a new service offering "issue decomposition" workshops - new way of methodically understanding how the future will impact your most important decisions and policies.
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By Faith Powell on Jul 11, 2023
New capability makes it easy to collect forecasts from wider audiences
Cultivate has released a new “request for response” capability that allows you to send any audience a simple survey, in which they can submit forecasts that will automatically get aggregated with your crowd’s on your Forecasts platform.
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By Cultivate Labs on Jun 29, 2023
Q&A with Cultivate: A look into our forecast question development process
One of the first steps in a crowdsourced forecasting effort involves establishing a process for developing forecast questions that will deliver meaningful signals to decision-makers. We wanted to shed some light on our process, so we talked to a few of our team members that focus on developing questions for our client platforms.
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By Faith Powell on Jun 05, 2023
Our new forecast question interface for yes/no binary questions
We recently launched an update to our binary question interface – it will now show both “yes” and “no” answer options, rather than a single “yes” option. When you change the probability for one answer, the other will automatically update to ensure the probabilities always add to 100%.
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By Cultivate Labs on May 10, 2023
Introducing the INFER mobile app
Our forecasters have been asking for a mobile app – and we are excited to share that it is now available for INFER, a crowd forecasting program in partnership with the University of Maryland’s ARLIS to support U.S. Government policymakers. You will now be able to submit forecasts on critical questions to support INFER’s government stakeholders directly from our native app on a phone or tablet.
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By Ben Roesch on May 05, 2023
Does forecasting accuracy really matter?
tl;dr - Yes, of course it matters. But improving it in lieu of the other benefits crowdsourced forecasting can provide continues to receive an outsized portion of attention when thinking about how to use crowdsourced forecasting to improve decision-making.
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By Adam Siegel on Apr 18, 2023
Playing with ChatGPT: Summarization of Forecast Rationales
Manual and time consuming sound like a perfect use case for some automated technology which is why we were so interested in what ChatGPT could do. Ultimately our goal would be to do the same thing a human was doing: summarize the rationales representing different probabilistic judgments.
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By Faith Powell on Mar 07, 2023
Cultivate Beaker Newsletter Archive
Take a look at our past newsletters sent to the Cultivate community
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By Adam Siegel on Feb 24, 2023
Prompting Action to Address "Gray Rhinos" Using Crowdsourced Forecasting
In a recent meeting in Washington, DC with a group responsible for continuously thinking about the needs of the U.S. Intelligence Community to improve their mission, I was asked how crowdsourced forecasting can help mitigate "gray rhinos." Gray rhinos are impactful, highly probable events, that everyone knows are coming, but are not acted upon.
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By Adam Siegel on Feb 20, 2023
UK's Cosmic Bazaar and U.S.' INFER Forecasting Collaboration is Launched
We were thrilled to see a couple different projects we have the opportunity to work on come together in a formal collaboration last week Cosmic Bazaar and INFER, the UK and US Government's forecasting efforts respectively, have agreed to a partnership of asking similar questions and sharing data between the two platforms - a first ever such collaboration.
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By Faith Powell on Feb 09, 2023
Learning and improving our forecasts together: crowd forecast change alerts
Crowd forecasting allows you to get signals about events before they happen. We're making it even easier to be alerted to important signals by introducing crowd forecast change alerts – which notify you of sudden shifts in the consensus forecast.
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By Adam Siegel on Dec 19, 2022
2022 in the Rearview
I wanted to do a brief year-end retrospective on what we’ve been focused on both for your sake and for ours. Sometimes we take for granted how much we’ve accomplished in a 12-month window. Taking a moment to pause and look back helps us appreciate that better.
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By Henry Tolchard on Nov 03, 2022
Crowd Forecasting and Effective Altruism
Many effective altruist (EA) core values illustrate why they are enthusiastic to use crowd forecasting methods. EAs seek to tackle problems of global significance, placing an emphasis on not only doing good, but doing good effectively. "When decision-makers in government have to make high-stakes judgment calls, using rigorous forecasting techniques can improve our ability to predict the future and make better decisions."
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By Zach Siewert on Oct 25, 2022
Well, that was embarrassing: lessons from forecasting on UK’s prime minister
A key practice of a good forecaster is doing post-mortems on your forecasts. Whether the result was good or bad, a quality post-mortem can help you identify what you did well or poorly and can improve on next time. See what Zach learned about his blindspots on a recent forecast about now-former UK Prime Minister, Liz Truss.
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By Adam Siegel on Sep 26, 2022
Bertelsmann Stiftung and its Foundation launch RANGE to examine Transatlantic Relations
Cultivate Labs is excited to announce a partnership with The Bertelsmann Stiftung, an independent foundation headquartered in Germany, and the Washington, DC-based Bertelsmann Foundation, part of the Stiftung’s international network.
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By Adam Siegel on Sep 06, 2022
Cultivate Labs and Pytho.io Team Up to Create a Forecaster Training Curriculum for INFER
Cultivate Labs and Pytho.io announced today the creation of a forecaster training curriculum for INFER (INtegrated Forecasting and Estimates of Risk), a crowdsourced forecasting program run by the Advanced Research Lab for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the University of Maryland.
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By Ben Roesch on Aug 04, 2022
Why We Stopped Supporting Prediction Markets
For many years, Cultivate Forecasts supported two different forecasting interface modes: prediction markets and opinion pools (aka opinion surveys or probability surveys). In a prediction market, forecasters buy and sell shares of answer options using real or virtual/fantasy currency (ie. I spend $10 to buy shares of “Yes” in the market “Will candidate X win the election?”). In an opinion pool, forecasters assign a probability to each potential answer (ie. I for
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By Adam Siegel on May 17, 2022
Tell us how you may be wrong
As consumers learn to use these forecasts as part of their own analysis and decision-making, we've been thinking through how we can make sure they see a complete picture - not just the one represented by the graph visualization that tracks the consensus, but why that consensus may be wrong. We want the consumer to always question their assumptions and question the consensus.
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By Adam Siegel on May 03, 2022
A Contrarian Sort
Questioning the assumptions and probabilities of the consensus is a simple best practice of forecasting. Do I currently agree with the prevailing winds, or do I predict something different will occur? We've recently introduced the "contrarian sort..."
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By Adam Siegel on Apr 20, 2022
Assessing the credibility of a crowd forecast
With increased attention to crowdsourced generated forecasts as guidance to critical decisions comes the need to be as transparent as possible about the credibility of a current forecast.
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- Reducing Uncertainty Using Issue Decomposition
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