One of the first steps in a crowdsourced forecasting effort involves establishing a process for developing forecast questions that will deliver meaningful signals to decision-makers. We wanted to shed some light on our process, so we talked to a few of our team members that focus on developing questions for our client platforms.
Manual and time consuming sound like a perfect use case for some automated technology which is why we were so interested in what ChatGPT could do. Ultimately our goal would be to do the same thing a human was doing: summarize the rationales representing different probabilistic judgments.
As I was scrolling through news this morning, I noticed a headline: Energizer’s 18,000mAh phone-battery monster is an Indiegogo flop. Checking other headlines about this, the news and commentary were equally brutal.