Use collective intelligence to reduce risk for your most important decisions.
Cultivate Forecasts lets you gather internal forecasts to uncover ground truth and measure your forecast accuracy.
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The most informed you've ever been when making decisions.
Understand consensus
Ongoing predictions get aggregated into one consensus which is often more accurate than any single expert.
Improve judgment and accountability
Engage teams in making judgement calls on pressing questions and drive accountability for outcomes.
Improve situational awareness
Where do you have biases? Blind spots? By measuring predictions, you'll understand your organization better than you ever have before.
How it works
Ask for forecasts about a future event.
For example, if you’re trying to prepare for a new product launch, you might ask: What are the chances we will meet development milestone Y? Will the marketing budget need to increase by launch? How many of product X will we sell at launch?
Invite people and crowdsource forecasts.
Collect an unlimited number of probabilistic forecasts (anonymous – or not), and see what people are commenting. Unlike a survey, people can update their forecasts on open questions as they change their minds.
See the consensus prediction in real-time to take action.
Forecasts are aggregated in real-time so you always know what the ‘crowd says’ when making big decisions. If there’s only a 25% chance we will meet our product development deadline, then you can course correct.
Measure how you did and learn from your performance.
Once the outcome to a forecast question is known, then you can judge the question. We judge accuracy using a Brier Score – like weather forecasters – so you can continue to improve over time. Leaderboards can also create competition.
The science behind Cultivate Forecasts
Cultivate Forecasts uses several types of forecasting methods like prediction markets and probability elicitation proven effective by academic and government-sponsored research we've been a part of.
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Client Examples
Royal Dutch Shell
How Shell's Global Exploration Group used crowdsourced forecasting to inform drilling and lease sale decisions.
Twitch
Forecasting changed how projects are managed by ingraining a culture of quantitative predictions and feedback.
Our professional services team and partners help bring Cultivate Forecasts to life.
For many clients, our technology is part of a new way of working, and we can guide you to set up a new program that is engaging and valuable for your teams and decision makers.
Strategy and project planning workshops for kicking off your forecasting project the right way.
Executive and employee training sessions on how to be a good forecaster and translating those budding skills to the act of forecasting on our platform.
Our full service consulting covers forecasting program design, management, and execution - from executive reporting to employee communication and engagement.
The latest thinking from our blog about crowd forecasting
By Vanessa Pineda
Cultivate Forecasts now offers presentation mode to capture live forecasts at meetings
By Vanessa Pineda
Cultivate Forecasts just got a lot more collaborative with team functionality
By Adam Siegel
Prediction Markets give hope to reproducibility crisis in scientific experiments
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Our thoughts on internal crowdsourcing and the future of work.
