This guide aims to provide a comprehensive resource for understanding various crowdsourced forecasting mechanisms, including prediction markets and opinion pools, features, and benefits. If you're interested in running a crowdsourced forecasting project at your company, or if you have questions for which you'd like to see answers added to this guide, feel free to contact us.

Introduction to Crowdsourced Forecasting Mechanisms

What are prediction markets?

What is short selling in a prediction market?

What are the different types of prediction markets?

What is an opinion pool?

What does it mean to resolve a prediction market?

Technical Material 

How does the Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (LMSR) work? (Applicable to Prediction Markets)

What is forecast calibration?

What is a Brier Score and how is it calculated?

What are Relative Brier Scores and How are they Calculated?

What is the Ordinal Scoring System and How is it Calculated?

What are continuous questions and how are they scored?