Our methodology for breaking down complex issues into forecastable signals to better understand the future.
Get the WhitepaperDecomposition stems from an analytical technique, used for decades by the U.S. Intelligence Community and others, to break down big-picture, high-impact issues into signals that can be monitored.
Cultivate has been refining the process of integrating crowdsourced forecasting with decomposition to enhance the analysis informing critical decisions for governments and organizations
Interested in running a decomposition workshop?
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During and after the global COVID-19 pandemic, the way we work changed dramatically. AI, remote work, and a rising Gen Z workforce inform the megatrends we predict will continue to change the landscape.
Get the WhitepaperUsing the hyperefficiency of ChatGPT, we cut the time it takes to summarize a collection of rationales representing different probabilistic judgments.
With increased attention to crowd-generated forecasts as guidance to critical decisions comes the need to be as transparent as possible about the credibility of a current forecast.
We chose to support opinion pools instead of prediction markets for many reason including flexibility in aggregation and risks of markets.