Our latest white papers and perspectives on best practices to help organizations use human collective intelligence to reduce risk and create decision advantage.


Reducing Uncertainty Using Issue Decomposition

Our methodology for breaking down complex issues into forecastable signals to better understand the future.

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Decomposition stems from an analytical technique, used for decades by the U.S. Intelligence Community and others, to break down big-picture, high-impact issues into signals that can be monitored.

Cultivate has been refining the process of integrating crowdsourced forecasting with decomposition to enhance the analysis informing critical decisions for governments and organizations

Interested in running a decomposition workshop?
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A Roadmap for Using AI to Create Value Across the Crowdsourced Forecasting Lifecycle

Our recommendations based on early experiments with AI to create efficiency and value across key aspects of the crowdsourced forecasting lifecycle, including question development, reporting, and engagement.

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Predictions on the Future of Work 2030

During and after the global COVID-19 pandemic, the way we work changed dramatically. AI, remote work, and a rising Gen Z workforce inform the megatrends we predict will continue to change the landscape.

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Playing with ChatGPT: Summarization of Forecast Rationales

Using the hyperefficiency of ChatGPT, we cut the time it takes to summarize a collection of rationales representing different probabilistic judgments.

Assessing The Credibility Of A Crowd Forecast

With increased attention to crowd-generated forecasts as guidance to critical decisions comes the need to be as transparent as possible about the credibility of a current forecast.

Why We Stopped Supporting Prediction Markets

We chose to support opinion pools instead of prediction markets for many reason including flexibility in aggregation and risks of markets.