Our new forecast question interface for yes/no binary questions
By Faith Powell on June 05, 2023
We recently launched an update to our binary question interface – it will now show both “yes” and “no” answer options, rather than a single “yes” option. When you change the probability for one answer, the other will automatically update to ensure the probabilities always add to 100%. Here’s an example of the updated binary question interface:
We made this change because showing both “yes” and “no” probabilities
seems to be more intuitive to forecasters.
In recent months, we’ve seen an uptick of questions come though our support inbox asking how to answer “no” to a binary question when only the “yes” option is displayed. Before the update, the "no" answer was inferred based on your input for “yes” – meaning if you forecasted a 60% chance that an event would happen (yes), it implied a 40% chance the event wouldn’t happen (no). To avoid misunderstanding and confusion moving forward, both the “yes” and “no” options can now be seen alongside each other.
Here is an example of our old interface before the update:
What’s staying the same? We'll continue to show one consensus “yes”
forecast in site summaries, and for forecast output “consumers.”
Although the forecasting interface itself shows yes/no probabilities, you will continue to see the original single probability output indicating “yes” in forecast summaries, including site question list and trend graphs (see examples at the end of the blog).
This is because our clients and stakeholders most often “consume” forecast outputs from binary questions in a single “yes” probability form, as it is quicker to scan and digest for decision making.
Check out the new binary question interface on any of our client platforms, including on the public platform INFER-Public, and forecast with us today!
Image description: Site question list where original single probability
answer is retained.
Image description: Site consensus trend where original single probability
answer is retained.
