The Ultimate Guide to Crowdsourced Forecasting and Prediction Markets 

This guide aims to provide a comprehensive resource for understanding various crowdsourced forecasting mechanisms, including prediction markets and opinion pools, features, and benefits. If you're interested in running a crowdsourced forecasting project at your company, or if you have questions for which you'd like to see answers added to this guide, feel free to contact us.

Introduction to Prediction Markets and Opinion Pools

What are prediction markets?

What is short selling in a prediction market?

What are the different types of prediction markets?

What is an opinion pool?

What does it mean to resolve a prediction market?

Technical Material 

How does the Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (LMSR) work? (Applicable to Prediction Markets)

What is forecast calibration?

What is a Brier Score and how is it calculated?

What are Net Brier Points and how are they calculated?

What is the Ordinal Scoring System and How is it Calculated?

Cultivate Forecasts logo - prediction market software for enterprises

Crowdsourced Forecasting

Use crowdsourcing to learn what your people really think is going to happen with your most important milestones and risks.

Cultivate Forecasts logo - prediction market software for enterprises

Live Action Forecasting

Captivate your event audience with an entirely new experience: live forecasting.