The Ultimate Guide to Prediction Markets

This guide aims to provide a comprehensive resource for understanding prediction markets and their various incarnations, features, and benefits. If you're interested in running a prediction market at your company, or if you have questions for which you'd like to see answers added to this guide, feel free to contact us here.


Introduction to Prediction Markets

What are prediction markets?

What does is mean to resolve a prediction market?

What is short selling in a prediction market?

What are the different types of prediction markets?

What is an opinion pool?



Technical Material about Prediction Markets

How does the Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (LMSR) work?

What is forecast calibration?

What is a Brier Score and how is it calculated?

What are Net Brier Points and how are they calculated?