Cultivate Labs Support Article

Cultivate Labs Support Articles

Academic Articles About Crowdsourced Forecasting

Corporate Prediction Markets

  1. Cowgill, Bo & Zitzewitz, Eric. (2015). Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Firm X. Rev Econ Stud 2015, 82(4), 1309-1341. doi: 10.1093/restud/rdv014
  2. Cowgill, Bo, Wolfers, Justin, & Zitzewitz, Eric. (2009, January). "Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows:  Evidence from Google" - PDF file.
  3. O’Leary D.E. (2014). "Analysis of Data from a Corporate Prediction Market" - PDF file.
  4. Pandey. Pankaj & Snekkenes, Einar A. (2014, September). Applicability of Prediction Markets in Information Security Risk Management. 
  5. Wolfram, Thomas. (2015). Have Corporate Prediction Markets Had Their Heyday? 
  6. Horn, Christian F. & Ivens, Bjorn S. (2015). Corporate Prediction Markets for Innovation Management - PDF file.
  7. Cipriano, Michael & Gruca, Thomas S. (2014). The Power of Priors: How Confirmation Bias Impacts Market Prices.

U.S. Government Research Results

  1. Laskey, Kathryn & Hanson, Robin & Twardy, Charles. (2015). Combinatorial Prediction Markets for Fusing Information from Distributed Experts and Models
  2. To access research on IARPA's Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program, visit the Google Scholar link. 

Other Research

  1. Abramowicz, Michael. (2008). Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making, Yale University Press.
  2. Atanasov, P., Witkowski, J., Ungar, L., Mellers, B. & Tetlock, P. (2020). Small steps to accuracy: Incremental belief updaters are better forecasters, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 160, 19-35.
  3. Bell, Tom W. (2006). Prediction Markets For Promoting the Progress of Science and the Useful Arts - PDF file - George Mason Law Review (14 Geo. Mason L. Rev 37) 
  4. Berg, Joyce E., & Thomas A. Rietz. (2005, January). The Iowa Electronic Market: Lessons Learned and Answers Yearned - PDF file.
  5. Dreber, A., Pfeiffer, T., Almenberg, J. et al. (2015). Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research, PNAS, 112(50), 15343-15347. 
  6. Friedman, J., Baker, J., Mellers, B., Tetlock, P. & Zeckhauser, R. (2018). The Value of Precision in Probability Assessment: Evidence from a Large-Scale Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament, International Studies Quarterly, 62(2), 410-422.
  7. Gjerstad, Steven. (2005). Risk Aversion, Beliefs, and Prediction Market Equilibrium, University of Arizona Working Paper 04-17.
  8. Graefe, A. & Armstrong, J.S. (2011). Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation taskInternational Journal of Forecasting, 27(1), 183-195.
  9. Gruca, Thomas S., Berg, Joyce E. & Cipriano, Michael. (2005). Consensus and Differences of Opinion in Electronic Prediction MarketsElectronic Markets, 15(1), 13-22. doi:10.1080/10196780500034939
  10. Hanson, Robin. (2005, May 5). The Informed Press Favored the Policy Analysis Market - PDF file.
  11. The Journal of Prediction Markets
  12. Manski, Charles F. (2005, August). Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets - PDF file. —Manski suggests that there needs to be a better theoretic basis for interpreting market prices as probability, and provides a simple model for this.
  13. Mellers, B., Tetlock, P., Baker, J. et al. (2019). Improving the Accuracy of Geopolitical Risk Assessments,The Future of Risk Management, 1-28.
  14. Munafo, M., Pfeiffer, T., Altmejd, A. et al. (2015). Using prediction markets to forecast research evaluations, Royal Society Open Science, 2(10).
  15. Rosenbloom, E. S. & Notz, William. (2006). Statistical Tests of Real-Money versus Play-Money Prediction Markets, Electronic Markets, 16(1), 63-69. doi:10.1080/10196780500491303
  16. Rothschild, David. (2009). Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and their Biases, Public Opinion Quarterly, 73(5), 895-916.
  17. Servan-Schreiber, E., Wolfers, J., Pennock, D. & Galebach, B. (2004). Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter? Electronic Markets, 14(3), 243-251. doi:10.1080/1019678042000245254
  18. Simoiu, C., Sumanth, C. et al. (AAAI 2020). Studying the "Wisdom of Crowds" at Scale in Proceedings of the 7th AAAI Conference on Human Computation and Crowdsourcing.
  19. Spann, Martin & Skiera, Bernd. "Internet-Based Virtual Stock Markets for Business Forecasting" - PDF file - Discusses theory, design options and presents empirical comparisons on forecasting accuracy of prediction markets.
  20. Storkey, A.J. (2011). Machine Learning MarketsJournal of Machine Learning Research C&WP 15:AISTATS. 
  21. Storkey A.J., Millin, J., Geras, K. (2012). Isoelastic agents and wealth updates in machine learning markets - International Conference in Machine Learning. 
  22. Surowiecki, James. (2004). The Wisdom of Crowds. Doubleday.
  23. Tetlock, Philip E. & Gardner, Dan. (2015). Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Broadway Books.
  24. Tetlock, P., Mellers, B. & Scoblic, J.P. (2017). Bringing probability judgments into policy debates via forecasting tournaments, Science, 355(6324), 481-483. doi: 10.1126/science.aal3147
  25. Watkins, Jennifer H. (2007, April 25-29). Prediction Markets as an Aggregation Mechanism for Collective Intelligence - Proceedings of 2007 UCLA Lake Arrowhead Human Complex Systems Conference, Lake Arrowhead, CA, United States.
  26. Wolfers, Justin, & Eric Zitzewitz. (2004, May). Prediction Markets - PDF file.
  27. Wolfers, Justin, & Eric Zitzewitz. (2007, January 8). Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities Draft version - Expands on the work of Manski, providing a more general model wherein it is somewhat rational to interpret market prices as probabilities.
  28. Weijers, D. & Richardson, J. (2014). Is the repugnance about betting on terrorist attacks misguided? Ethics and Information Technology,16, 251-262. 
  29. Weijers, D. & Richardson, J. (2014). A Moral Analysis of Effective Prediction Markets on TerrorismInternational Journal of Technoethics, 5(1).

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