U.S. Intelligence Community - Crowdsourced Forecasting

The U.S. Intelligence Community has been active within the last few years experimenting and putting in to operation prediction markets and other crowdsourced forecasting mechanisms. Cultivate has been involved in a variety of these projects so please contact us if you'd like more information.

IARPA: Hybrid Forecasting Competition (Currently Active)

IARPA: The Aggregative Contingent Estimation Project (ACE) (Ended in 2015)

• The Good Judgment Project
• So You Think You're Smarter Than a CIA Analyst, NPR
• New York Times Op-Ed, David Brooks
• How to Win at Forecasting, Daniel Kahneman
• More Chatter Than Needed, David Ignatius

IARPA: Forecasting Science and Technology (ForeST) (Ended in 2015)

• SciCast - Science and Technology Forecasting
• When Was The Last Time You Forecast The Future?, Trajectory Magazine, USGIF

 Additional information:

• Regulation and Value of Prediction Markets
• Predictive Analytics for Intel Advantage

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