With the NFL complete, Jack and Ben revisit forecasts they made on the podcast, with a focus on things they got wrong, and also words that start with the letter P. Chuck Pagano, Peyton Manning, and Blake Bortles all make appearances (well, they're discussed), and Ben asks whether Jack is old enough to remember Sesame Street (which is still on the air.)
Jack and Ben discuss their old podcast friend Chuck Pagano and his Indianapolis Colts, and predict whether Peyton Manning's time in Denver and interception count have ended.Click here for episode 11Relevant links:
After a brief hiatus / Japanese vacation, Jack and Ben are back to discuss the US election. They discuss ways to arbitrage different markets on AlphaCast, and how to use other prediction markets to guide trading behavior. Then Ben goes off on a whim and makes some bold predictions about who will win the GOP nomination, naming the 4.5 candidates he thinks are the only ones who have a chance. Who are Ben's sleeper picks? Listen to find out.
In Episode 9, we set a new record for our earliest mistake in a podcast (listen carefully to the first 5 seconds or so). Jack and Ben bring in an NBA "expert", Brian Leslie, to discuss the NBA's undefeated Golden State Warriors and winless Philadelphia 76ers. Which streak will last longer? Listen to the podcast to find out. We also discuss the NBA Rookie of the Year contenders, and continue our discussion of basketball's trend towards more three-pointers.
Hold on, listeners, because Episode 8 is a doozy. Jack and Ben explore AlphaCast, our new site forecasting finance and business topics, focusing on questions about future Unicorn companies. Jack and Ben discuss the similarities and differences when forecasting finance versus sports, and lay out their initial take on two shaving companies. Find out what they think, and also learn who shaves and who has a beard.
In Episode 7, Jack and Ben recap their earlier predictions about Chuck Pagano and Anthony Davis, then take a look at the playoff implications of the NFC North, NFC South, and AFC North and continue to discuss the NBA's trend toward more three point shooting. Jack recounts his recent trip to Carolina, and Ben cautions forecasters against using all their points on one question.
In Episode 6, Ben explains that Cultivate Conversations might be responsible for bringing down ESPN-owned Grantland. Jack and Ben disagree on whether Indianapolis Colts coach Chuck Pagano will be fired, and Ben tries (and fails) to convince Jack (and himself) that maybe the NBA won't set a new record for three pointers this season.
In episode 5, Jack and Ben discuss a recent Grantland article where Zach Lowe makes some "crazy" "predictions" about the NBA season, examining both the content of Lowe's articles, and what we mean by "crazy" and "prediction". But first, Jack explains how to forecast golf tournaments, and Ben brags about his rise up the SportsCast leaderboard.
In Episode 4, Ben and Jack talk about emerging NBA superstar Anthony Davis, whose new coach wants him to shoot three-pointers. How do you forecast an event when the historical trend-line is almost certainly wrong? Ben establishes his credibility by incorrectly stating the name of Davis's team.
Also in this episode, Jack overviews the Big Ten West, Ben chimes in with some Big Ten trivia, and they discuss randomness in the baseball playoffs.
In Episode 3, Ben and Jack discuss Roger Goodell's tenure as NFL commissioner, the National League Cy Young award, and which NFC teams are likely to win their divisions. They also show how prediction market questions often require you to think about the likelihood of someone dying. Ben holds himself accountable for erroneous predictions from the previous week and has trouble remembering Jordan Spieth's name.
In Episode 2, Jack and Ben talk about Cultivate's exciting about-to-launch product, and discuss whether prediction markets are capable of beating Las Vegas odds, and forecasting models. They also assess their performance in Episode 1, and make picks for this weekend's NFL games.
In the inaugural episode of Cultivate Conversations, Jack and Ben discuss the competitive races for PGA Tour Player of the Year and President of the United States, focussing on prediction markets. They discuss different ways of thinking about forecasting, and apply them to live prediction market questions.