Cultivate Forecasts platform now features AI-generated forecast rationale summaries
By Faith Powell on November 03, 2023
Our forecasting platform now includes AI-powered forecast rationale summaries using Anthropic’s Claude2. These summaries can be seen in action on INFER, a client program which runs a public instance of our forecasting platform, and can be enabled on other Cultivate-run forecasting sites. To find the summaries, navigate to the 'Crowd Forecast' tab on any forecast question and you can see a summary of the crowd rationales for or against a future outcome. See a screenshot of the interface below.
Once a new question reaches at least ten high-quality rationales, this capability will automatically generate a summary of those rationales – and it will update that summary once per day. Filtering out the short and oversimplified “update” forecasts, the integration summarizes only rationales that are deemed “high quality” according to Cultivate’s proprietary forecast rationale rating system that considers length, complexity, and forecaster accuracy.
Forecasters are already using AI-generated rationale summaries to quickly view a high-level synthesis of crowd perspectives before diving into their own research. Rather than reading through many individual rationales, the summary provides forecasters a quick glimpse of the key reasoning behind various viewpoints. This helps forecasters inform their own research by surfacing relevant considerations and background information at the start.
Analysts are also leveraging AI-generated rationale summaries to quickly get up to speed and understand the biggest factors driving the crowd's forecasts. Using this bird's-eye view, analysts can rapidly grasp crowd sentiment and main arguments for and against outcomes before conducting their own in-depth review.
Inspired by our recent research in using AI in a variety of ways for forecasting and managing a crowd forecasting platform, this new capability is already streamlining forecasting and analysis processes. We invite you to check out AI-generated rationale summaries on our Cultivate Forecasts platforms to see how it might augment your existing research and analysis.
Example interface:
