What happens when you analyze college football like the CIA?
What happens when you apply CIA-style analysis normally used to understand China or Russia to your favorite sports team?
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From the team shipping AI forecasting and sensemaking systems used by government, defense, finance, and research teams.
Introducing un-scored questions
The religion of probabilistic forecasting says SCORE EVERYTHING and we try to(!), but there are times when you want to ask a question that may not have good resolution criteria or the answer is 5+ years from being known so we've introduced unscored questions.
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Citations enhance AI-generated rationale summaries on our Forecasts platform
Our AI forecast rationale summaries have been updated to include citations, so you can see the original context of the forecast and rationale contributed.
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Cultivate Forecasts platform now features AI-generated forecast rationale summaries
We released a new feature on our forecasting platform: AI-powered forecast rationale summaries using Anthropic’s Claude2. Read about how forecasters and analysts are already using this capability.
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Team forecasting lessons from Cultivate Labs
As a company, we hold small group forecasting sessions regularly. We’ve learned a few tactics to help other teams surface diverse viewpoints and avoid groupthink. Here are some recommendations for any teams forecasting together.
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Introducing the INFER mobile app
Our forecasters have been asking for a mobile app – and we are excited to share that it is now available for INFER, a crowd forecasting program in partnership with the University of Maryland’s ARLIS to support U.S. Government policymakers. You will now be able to submit forecasts on critical questions to support INFER’s government stakeholders directly from our native app on a phone or tablet.
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Does forecasting accuracy really matter?
tl;dr - Yes, of course it matters. But improving it in lieu of the other benefits crowdsourced forecasting can provide continues to receive an outsized portion of attention when thinking about how to use crowdsourced forecasting to improve decision-making.
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Playing with ChatGPT: Summarization of Forecast Rationales
Manual and time consuming sound like a perfect use case for some automated technology which is why we were so interested in what ChatGPT could do. Ultimately our goal would be to do the same thing a human was doing: summarize the rationales representing different probabilistic judgments.
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Well, that was embarrassing: lessons from forecasting on UK’s prime minister
A key practice of a good forecaster is doing post-mortems on your forecasts. Whether the result was good or bad, a quality post-mortem can help you identify what you did well or poorly and can improve on next time. See what Zach learned about his blindspots on a recent forecast about now-former UK Prime Minister, Liz Truss.
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Why We Stopped Supporting Prediction Markets
For many years, Cultivate Forecasts supported two different forecasting interface modes: prediction markets and opinion pools (aka opinion surveys or probability surveys). In a prediction market, forecasters buy and sell shares of answer options using real or virtual/fantasy currency (ie. I spend $10 to buy shares of “Yes” in the market “Will candidate X win the election?”). In an opinion pool, forecasters assign a probability to each potential answer (ie. I for
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A Contrarian Sort
Questioning the assumptions and probabilities of the consensus is a simple best practice of forecasting. Do I currently agree with the prevailing winds, or do I predict something different will occur? We've recently introduced the "contrarian sort..."
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Tracking the Outcome of Strategic Questions with Crowd Forecasting
To understand a big, fuzzy strategic question, you need to break it down into digestible signals you can forecast. Here's how we do it.
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New Type of Forecasting Interface Creates a Lot of Options
We’re excited to announce the launch of a beta version of a new forecasting capability on the Cultivate platform we’re calling “multi-time period questions.” This new type of forecasting input now gives us the ability to collect several points of input from the forecaster all at once.
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Don't Let Your Forecasts Get Too Stale
For a long time we've had a rudimentary reminder system a user can set after they make a forecast. But now, we've introduced a more intelligent "nudging" system to ensure a larger percentage of forecasters are updating their forecasts on a regular basis.
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Cultivate Forecasts Latest Updates: Leaderboard filters, source link section, cleansed emails & more
The latest Cultivate Forecasts platform updates as of December 7, 2020.
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The Unintended Consequences of Running Internal Forecasting Tournaments
Forecasting tournaments are compelling but you should be eyes wide open to some negative consequences if you run them inside your organization.
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Cultivate Forecasts Latest Updates: Infographics, discussion features, and performance feedback
The latest Cultivate Forecasts platform updates as of July 2, 2020.
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Cultivate Forecasts now offers presentation mode to capture live forecasts at meetings
New presentation feature lets people forecast -- and see the results update in real-time.
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Cultivate Forecasts just got a lot more collaborative with team functionality
Forecasting in teams can lead to greater accuracy, and we've got the features to make it possible, like private team pages with discussion boards and team rankings.
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