As a company, we hold small group forecasting sessions regularly. We’ve learned a few tactics to help other teams surface diverse viewpoints and avoid groupthink. Here are some recommendations for any teams forecasting together.
Our forecasters have been asking for a mobile app – and we are excited to share that it is now available for INFER, a crowd forecasting program in partnership with the University of Maryland’s ARLIS to support U.S. Government policymakers. You will now be able to submit forecasts on critical questions to support INFER’s government stakeholders directly from our native app on a phone or tablet.
tl;dr - Yes, of course it matters. But improving it in lieu of the other
benefits crowdsourced forecasting can provide continues to receive an outsized
portion of attention when thinking about how to use crowdsourced forecasting to
Manual and time consuming sound like a perfect use case for some automated technology which is why we were so interested in what ChatGPT could do. Ultimately our goal would be to do the same thing a human was doing: summarize the rationales representing different probabilistic judgments.
A key practice of a good forecaster is doing post-mortems on your forecasts. Whether the result was good or bad, a quality post-mortem can help you identify what you did well or poorly and can improve on next time. See what Zach learned about his blindspots on a recent forecast about now-former UK Prime Minister, Liz Truss.
For many years, Cultivate Forecasts supported two different forecasting interface modes: prediction markets and opinion pools (aka opinion surveys or probability surveys). In a prediction market, forecasters buy and sell shares of answer options using real or virtual/fantasy currency (ie. I spend $10 to buy shares of “Yes” in the market “Will candidate X win the election?”). In an opinion pool, forecasters assign a probability to each potential answer (ie. I for
Questioning the assumptions and probabilities of the consensus is a simple best practice of forecasting. Do I currently agree with the prevailing winds, or do I predict something different will occur? We've recently introduced the "contrarian sort..."
We’re excited to announce the launch of a beta version of a new forecasting capability on the Cultivate platform we’re calling “multi-time period questions.” This new type of forecasting input now gives us the ability to collect several points of input from the forecaster all at once.
For a long time we've had a rudimentary reminder system a user can set after they make a forecast. But now, we've introduced a more intelligent "nudging" system to ensure a larger percentage of forecasters are updating their forecasts on a regular basis.