Cultivate Labs Blog
Discussing how crowd forecasting, internal crowdfunding, and other new workplace trends can be used to improve the #futureofwork
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By Vanessa Pineda on Feb 26, 2024
Citations enhance AI-generated rationale summaries on our Forecasts platform
Our AI forecast rationale summaries have been updated to include citations, so you can see the original context of the forecast and rationale contributed.
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By Faith Powell on Nov 03, 2023
Cultivate Forecasts platform now features AI-generated forecast rationale summaries
We released a new feature on our forecasting platform: AI-powered forecast rationale summaries using Anthropic’s Claude2. Read about how forecasters and analysts are already using this capability.
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By Faith Powell on Oct 05, 2023
Team forecasting lessons from Cultivate Labs
As a company, we hold small group forecasting sessions regularly. We’ve learned a few tactics to help other teams surface diverse viewpoints and avoid groupthink. Here are some recommendations for any teams forecasting together.
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By Cultivate Labs on May 10, 2023
Introducing the INFER mobile app
Our forecasters have been asking for a mobile app – and we are excited to share that it is now available for INFER, a crowd forecasting program in partnership with the University of Maryland’s ARLIS to support U.S. Government policymakers. You will now be able to submit forecasts on critical questions to support INFER’s government stakeholders directly from our native app on a phone or tablet.
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By Ben Roesch on May 05, 2023
Does forecasting accuracy really matter?
tl;dr - Yes, of course it matters. But improving it in lieu of the other benefits crowdsourced forecasting can provide continues to receive an outsized portion of attention when thinking about how to use crowdsourced forecasting to improve decision-making.
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By Adam Siegel on Apr 18, 2023
Playing with ChatGPT: Summarization of Forecast Rationales
Manual and time consuming sound like a perfect use case for some automated technology which is why we were so interested in what ChatGPT could do. Ultimately our goal would be to do the same thing a human was doing: summarize the rationales representing different probabilistic judgments.
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By Zach Siewert on Oct 25, 2022
Well, that was embarrassing: lessons from forecasting on UK’s prime minister
A key practice of a good forecaster is doing post-mortems on your forecasts. Whether the result was good or bad, a quality post-mortem can help you identify what you did well or poorly and can improve on next time. See what Zach learned about his blindspots on a recent forecast about now-former UK Prime Minister, Liz Truss.
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By Ben Roesch on Aug 04, 2022
Why We Stopped Supporting Prediction Markets
For many years, Cultivate Forecasts supported two different forecasting interface modes: prediction markets and opinion pools (aka opinion surveys or probability surveys). In a prediction market, forecasters buy and sell shares of answer options using real or virtual/fantasy currency (ie. I spend $10 to buy shares of “Yes” in the market “Will candidate X win the election?”). In an opinion pool, forecasters assign a probability to each potential answer (ie. I for
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By Adam Siegel on May 03, 2022
A Contrarian Sort
Questioning the assumptions and probabilities of the consensus is a simple best practice of forecasting. Do I currently agree with the prevailing winds, or do I predict something different will occur? We've recently introduced the "contrarian sort..."
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By Adam Siegel on Oct 07, 2021
Tracking the Outcome of Strategic Questions with Crowd Forecasting
To understand a big, fuzzy strategic question, you need to break it down into digestible signals you can forecast. Here's how we do it.
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By Zach Siewert on Aug 31, 2021
New Type of Forecasting Interface Creates a Lot of Options
We’re excited to announce the launch of a beta version of a new forecasting capability on the Cultivate platform we’re calling “multi-time period questions.” This new type of forecasting input now gives us the ability to collect several points of input from the forecaster all at once.
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By Adam Siegel on Apr 26, 2021
Don't Let Your Forecasts Get Too Stale
For a long time we've had a rudimentary reminder system a user can set after they make a forecast. But now, we've introduced a more intelligent "nudging" system to ensure a larger percentage of forecasters are updating their forecasts on a regular basis.
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By Vanessa Pineda on Dec 07, 2020
Cultivate Forecasts Latest Updates: Leaderboard filters, source link section, cleansed emails & more
The latest Cultivate Forecasts platform updates as of December 7, 2020.
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By Adam Siegel on Oct 22, 2020
The Unintended Consequences of Running Internal Forecasting Tournaments
Forecasting tournaments are compelling but you should be eyes wide open to some negative consequences if you run them inside your organization.
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By Vanessa Pineda on Jul 02, 2020
Cultivate Forecasts Latest Updates: Infographics, discussion features, and performance feedback
The latest Cultivate Forecasts platform updates as of July 2, 2020.
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By Vanessa Pineda on Apr 24, 2020
Cultivate Forecasts now offers presentation mode to capture live forecasts at meetings
New presentation feature lets people forecast -- and see the results update in real-time.
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By Vanessa Pineda on Apr 23, 2020
Cultivate Forecasts just got a lot more collaborative with team functionality
Forecasting in teams can lead to greater accuracy, and we've got the features to make it possible, like private team pages with discussion boards and team rankings.
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