Predict Daily Fantasy Football Leaders on SportsCast
By Ben Golden
One use of prediction markets I've
been really excited about is forecasting individual players' performances
in major sports. These predictions are incredibly useful when playing fantasy
daily fantasy and season-long leagues--and the forecasts that currently
exist tend to be, in my experience, pretty mediocre. Prediction markets present
an opportunity for the wisdom of the crowds to intervene, and will likely lead
to more accurate forecasts.
Eventually we'd like to run prediction markets for almost every player's statistics in each game in each sport, but we're starting out by consolidating forecasts into a few questions. For the remainder of the NFL season, we'll create questions asking who will be the top performers amongst different tiers at each position. For example, this question asked about the top five tight ends in week 10, while this one asks about the next five tight ends.
There are two ways to interact with these questions. First, if you play fantasy football, you can use the existing predictions to guide your lineup decisions, by knowing who top performers in each category are most likely to be. Second, if you think the existing predictions are unreasonable, you can adjust them by making a forecast. Your forecasts are tracked and scored by the prediction market, increasing or decreasing your points based on their accuracy.
I'll be watching these markets closely each week, and if they're popular, we'll add additional fantasy sports questions. You'll also find questions that are closely related to fantasy performance, like these two.Ben Golden/@BenGoldn is an Engineer at Cultivate Labs.