Cultivate Labs Blog
Discussing how prediction markets, internal crowdfunding, and other new workplace trends can be used to improve the #futureofwork
By Adam Siegel on Dec 17, 2019
Prediction Markets give hope to reproducibility crisis in scientific experiments
I talk to Anna Dreber Almenberg, an economist at the Stockholm School of Economics about prediction markets she's running to try and address the reproducibility crisis in science.
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By Adam Siegel on Oct 24, 2019
Schedule Chicken
Schedule chicken is when someone is personally behind on their work, but doesn't say anything because they think someone else will, and take the heat for it, thus protecting their own ass. This apparently goes on at Apple, and is completely absurd. There's another way.
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By Adam Siegel on Oct 15, 2019
Announcing Flashcast
We're excited to announce the availability of a new product, Flashcast. Flashcast is an entirely new way to interact with your audience. Ask them to make predictions about a related topic and watch the results, live.
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By Adam Siegel on May 31, 2019
We need to make it feel ok to be wrong sometimes
No one enjoys being wrong. It’s an unpleasant emotional experience for any of us. But that’s exactly the risk we’re suggesting people take when we ask them to make a forecast about the future.
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By Adam Siegel on Mar 14, 2019
The Rise of Anonymous Tough Love (And Not a Moment Too Soon)
When we start projects with our clients, one of the first items we talk about is whether they want people to be anonymous in our prediction market or if they’ll use their real identities. The answer often reveals a lot, both about company culture and their personal fears of what will be made transparent. The spoiler alert is most don’t want anonymity.
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By Adam Siegel on Mar 05, 2019
The Culture of Fear Problem
After working with dozens of companies who have culture initiatives, I’m convinced their multi-million dollar investments in consultants, employee time, internal marketing, and the like will only see a partial return because a blocker is in their way: their culture of fear.
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By Vanessa Pineda on Nov 01, 2018
What are “flash crowds” and how do we recruit them?
Our bread and butter working with clients is organizing their employees to participate in crowdsourcing exercises. Recently we have been approached more to help get forecasts from external crowds, either to support research projects, or to better understand what outside experts or customers think.
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By Adam Siegel on Oct 22, 2018
Before we talk, are YOU ready?
In the last month we’ve had two potential clients, after receiving proposals from us for projects, say they needed to step back and start the projects very differently than what we had originally discussed. They just weren't ready yet, they acknowledged...
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By Adam Siegel on Aug 13, 2018
Thoughts on Augur, the decentralized, blockchain prediction market
I've been watching for the last few years the announcement, long delay, then recent launch of Augur, the decentralized, blockchain-based prediction market. First off, despite it taking a long time to launch, Augur finally did, and kudos to them for doing so. Building a prediction market from scratch is not easy, building a prediction market on top of immature technology is harder, and building a prediction market to be completely decentralized with smart contracts is downright scary.
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By Adam Siegel on May 25, 2018
Pitch Perfect Security with Lending Club
We're pairing up with Lending Club to sponsor a monthly event where cybersecurity startups pitch their companies, and the audience gets to make predictions on our prediction market about how they're going to do in the next year in terms of fundraising, hiring, etc.
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By Cultivate Labs on Mar 19, 2018
The Traffic Light Metaphor for Project Status is a Disaster
Everyone who has worked in corporate America has seen or used it. The traffic light metaphor for status. Red, there’s significant problems with a project. Yellow, there are some issues, but we’re going to make it. Green, all is good. Unfortunately, this system is a disaster for decision making.
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By Adam Siegel on Dec 08, 2017
Very Satisfied with Client Satisfaction Survey
Recently, we launched a formal client satisfaction survey effort using a third party. Here's how we did.
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By Cultivate Labs on Dec 05, 2017
Cultivate Forecasts - Mobile App Update for iOS and Android
Register an account for Cultivate Forecasts mobile directly in the app.
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By Adam Siegel on Nov 28, 2017
Indian state Gujarat election prediction market pilot launched as precursor to 2019 general election
We're excited to be working with Idealantis, a startup based in Hyderabad, India on a prediction market pilot about the upcoming Gujarat state elections. Working with research organization People's Pulse, Idealantis has launched this test as a precursor to a country-wide effort for the general elections coming in 2019.
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By Adam Siegel on Nov 13, 2017
Sales and Operational Planning: Bad Forecasts Don't Have to be a Given
Cultivate Labs CEO, Adam Siegel, recently spoke at the Institute for Business Forecasting and Planning and spent time hearing directly form attendees about the challenges they face. He shares lessons learned about the challenges sales and operations planners face in their roles, and how crowdsourced forecasting can alleviate them and improve their forecast accuracy and efficiency.
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By Adam Siegel on Sep 27, 2017
Help LG Predict the Future
In partnership with LG Display, we are running a 6 month forecasting tournament about the high-end display industry.
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By Ben Roesch on Sep 11, 2017
Introduction to Blockchain-based Prediction Markets Terminology
Real-money prediction markets are illegal in the U.S., but blockchain technology is giving rise to several digital currency based prediction markets based on Ethereum. Cultivate Labs defines common terminology associated with blockchain-based prediction markets.
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By Ben Golden on Sep 06, 2017
New to Prediction Markets? Four Tips to Get Started.
Joining a prediction market or prediction pool can be intimidating. You may feel like you've plunged into a world of impossible questions, ongoing arguments, and have no idea where to start. You might think there's no way you could possibly add anything, or that your forecasts couldn't possible be better than anyone else's. But prediction markets don't have to be intimidating - here are four tips to get started.
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By Cultivate Labs on Aug 08, 2017
Employee Engagement is the Key to the Future of Business
The relationship between employers and employees is changing as the drivers of employee satisfaction are changing. Employees are no longer driven solely by a paycheck - they want their work to have a purpose and to believe in what their organization offers to the world. Organizations must shift their focus from paychecks and soft benefits like casual dress codes and office ping pong tables to better engage employees by ensuring opportunities for purpose, learning, and flexibility in their jobs.
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By Vanessa Pineda on Jul 25, 2017
Forecasting Shouldn't Be a Gamble. 5 Things to Do to Succeed with Crowdsourced Forecasting.
In more than 10 years of working with large companies on building prediction markets and other crowdsourced forecasting mechanisms, we’ve seen one common thread with the projects that are unsuccessful. Project owners overestimate the technology, and underestimate what it takes to engage people to make the technology successful. Avoid these 5 pitfalls to improve the success of your Cultivate Forecasts prediction market.
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By Adam Siegel on Jul 20, 2017
Have you heard "I think we're doing something wrong" recently? If not, you're doing something wrong.
An open door policy isn't an effective feedback tool for leadership if you haven't created an organizational culture that's open to feedback. Your team can provide valuable insight and feedback about decisions, so actively work to create an environment in which employees are comfortable speaking up to leadership.
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By Cultivate Labs on Jun 23, 2017
Travis Kalanick Ousted from Uber and the Erosion of the "Boys Club" Mentality as Good for Business
The ousting of Uber CEO Travis Kalanick on Tuesday is hardly surprising, though perhaps a bit out of step for both the revered ‘boys club’ who traditionally protect their own and the Silicon Valley culture that worships individuals who can, at all costs, create 10x returns on investment. But he should’ve seen it coming a long time ago, he brought it on himself after all...
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By Adam Siegel on Jun 12, 2017
A Board's Check on its CEO - The Smell Test for Self-Interest vs. Leadership
Recently on a Sunday during my weekly 2 hour break from all things family related, I sat at one of my favorite coffee houses and read the Sunday New York Times. An article in the Business section particularly caught my attention: The Trump Effect on CEO Pay, and it got me thinking: should a Board of Directors have a better check on their CEO than either termination or bonuses tied to stock price? Could there be something put in place better for the company's long-term prospects?
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By Brian Leslie on Jun 12, 2017
Determining the Accuracy of Prediction Markets
So, you asked a prediction market question, and the outcome is now known. The question has been resolved and winnings have been disbursed to the forecasters who held winning positions. Forecasters know how well they did based upon their profits in the question, and you know who your good forecasters were too. But how accurate was your organization at answering the question itself? There are several things to consider when thinking about accuracy of the prediction market:
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By Adam Siegel on May 09, 2017
Attempted Manipulation of our French Election Prediction Market: Here's What We Learned
It may be easier to manipulate a real-money market than a play-money market. In a play-money market, the dumb-money can always be defeated with smart money and a little vigilance.
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