Recent popular business books, like Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman (2011) and Superforcasters by Philip Tetlock (2015), show how we’re all inherently biased when making forecasts. That means cognitive biases like over-confidence and over-optimism play a role, especially when leaders and experts are making decisions about the future.
+ Crowdsourcing forecasts allows organizations to eliminate blind spots by connecting to “ground truth.”
James Surowiecki’s Wisdom of the Crowds (2004) brought to light the accuracy in aggregate group information. Since then, the U.S. Intelligence Community among others has conducted multi-million dollar research to prove the accuracy of crowds far exceeds that of a few experts. Public prediction markets have also thrived. For example, predictions in the Iowa Election Markets consistently outperform polls in every major political election since 1998. And the Good Judgment Open, an open forecasting tournament run on our platform by Good Judgment, has also shown promising results.
+ Early adopter companies of our technology like IBM, Caterpillar, GE, Shell, Ford, Exelon, and Twitch have all seen the benefits in measuring business outcomes: e.g., product development & sales, KPIs, portfolio management.
The latest phase of U.S. Intelligence research (supported by our platform) is testing various methods of crowdsourced forecasting leveraging machine learning. Nevertheless, humans alone still provide one of the best methods for accurate forecasting. Go humans!
+ Forecasts puts people first, amplifying their voice through quantfiable forecasts and rationales.Review academic articles