What happens when you analyze college football like the CIA?
What happens when you apply CIA-style analysis normally used to understand China or Russia to your favorite sports team?
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From the team shipping AI forecasting and sensemaking systems used by government, defense, finance, and research teams.
How crowdsourced forecasting works
Crowdsourced forecasting is the process of soliciting quantitative forecasts (e.g. probabilities) about future events from a large group of people, then aggregating them into a "crowd" forecast. By harnessing the collective intelligence of a large, diverse group of people, crowd forecasting gives an analyst or decision maker valuable outside perspectives to consider.
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The value of crowd forecasting for government and industry
Cultivate supports government national security communities and multinational organizations in implementing crowdsourced forecasting. This methodology builds a cycle of information, in which experts can tap into the collective intelligence of their organization to bolster decision analysis.
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Q&A with Cultivate: A look into our forecast question development process
One of the first steps in a crowdsourced forecasting effort involves establishing a process for developing forecast questions that will deliver meaningful signals to decision-makers. We wanted to shed some light on our process, so we talked to a few of our team members that focus on developing questions for our client platforms.
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Does forecasting accuracy really matter?
tl;dr - Yes, of course it matters. But improving it in lieu of the other benefits crowdsourced forecasting can provide continues to receive an outsized portion of attention when thinking about how to use crowdsourced forecasting to improve decision-making.
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Cultivate Beaker Newsletter Archive
Take a look at our past newsletters sent to the Cultivate community.
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Crowd Forecasting and Effective Altruism
Many effective altruist (EA) core values illustrate why they are enthusiastic to use crowd forecasting methods. EAs seek to tackle problems of global significance, placing an emphasis on not only doing good, but doing good effectively. "When decision-makers in government have to make high-stakes judgment calls, using rigorous forecasting techniques can improve our ability to predict the future and make better decisions."
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Cultivate Labs Completes its SOC 2 Type 1 Audit
SOC 2 certification is widely recognized as a gold standard for data security and requires companies to establish and follow strict information security policies and procedures.
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