Tldr; - Hopefully, but it won’t be because of superhuman accuracy.AI forecasting systems are the talk of the forecasting world. AI forecasting tournaments are running, VC money is flowing, and benchmarks are being published. We’re building an AI forecasting system ourselves. As with the rest of crowdsourced forecasting’s history, most of the chatter is around accuracy. How accurate are the LLMs? When will they beat human and pro forecasters? Can you train models specifically for forecas
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One of the first steps in a crowdsourced forecasting effort involves establishing a process for developing forecast questions that will deliver meaningful signals to decision-makers. We wanted to shed some light on our process, so we talked to a few of our team members that focus on developing questions for our client platforms.
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A key practice of a good forecaster is doing post-mortems on your forecasts. Whether the result was good or bad, a quality post-mortem can help you identify what you did well or poorly and can improve on next time. See what Zach learned about his blindspots on a recent forecast about now-former UK Prime Minister, Liz Truss.
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Cultivate Labs is excited to announce a partnership with The Bertelsmann Stiftung, an independent foundation headquartered in Germany, and the Washington, DC-based Bertelsmann Foundation, part of the Stiftung’s international network.
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Cultivate Labs and Pytho.io announced today the creation of a forecaster training curriculum for INFER (INtegrated Forecasting and Estimates of Risk), a crowdsourced forecasting program run by the Advanced Research Lab for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the University of Maryland.
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