Our bread and butter working with clients is organizing their employees to participate in crowdsourcing exercises. Recently we have been approached more to help get forecasts from external crowds, either to support research projects, or to better understand what outside experts or customers think.
Cultivate Labs CEO, Adam Siegel, recently spoke at the Institute for Business Forecasting and Planning and spent time hearing directly form attendees about the challenges they face. He shares lessons learned about the challenges sales and operations planners face in their roles, and how crowdsourced forecasting can alleviate them and improve their forecast accuracy and efficiency.
The future of work is changing, and your car's gas gauge is an indicator of how. In a future that will be increasingly measured, acquiring, understanding, and leveraging data in a timely fashion will determine who sinks and who swims.
As crowdsourcing becomes more widely adopted as a corporate innovation tool, the spotlight is on external crowdsourcing: engaging outside stakeholders such as experts, customers, and the general public to understand market demands and to collaborate on new product and service development. At the same time, organizations have recognized the innovative power of one more important constituency: their own employees.
So, you asked a prediction market question, and the outcome is now known. The question has been resolved and winnings have been disbursed to the forecasters who held winning positions. Forecasters know how well they did based upon their profits in the question, and you know who your good forecasters were too. But how accurate was your organization at answering the question itself? There are several things to consider when thinking about accuracy of the prediction market: