Cultivate Labs Blog

Discussing how crowd forecasting, internal crowdfunding, and other new workplace trends can be used to improve the #futureofwork

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By Cultivate Labs on Dec 05, 2017

Cultivate Forecasts - Mobile App Update for iOS and Android

Register an account for Cultivate Forecasts mobile directly in the app.

By Adam Siegel on Nov 28, 2017

Indian state Gujarat election prediction market pilot launched as precursor to 2019 general election

We're excited to be working with Idealantis, a startup based in Hyderabad, India on a prediction market pilot about the upcoming Gujarat state elections. Working with research organization People's Pulse, Idealantis has launched this test as a precursor to a country-wide effort for the general elections coming in 2019.

By Adam Siegel on Nov 13, 2017

Sales and Operational Planning: Bad Forecasts Don't Have to be a Given

Cultivate Labs CEO, Adam Siegel, recently spoke at the Institute for Business Forecasting and Planning and spent time hearing directly form attendees about the challenges they face. He shares lessons learned about the challenges sales and operations planners face in their roles, and how crowdsourced forecasting can alleviate them and improve their forecast accuracy and efficiency.

By Adam Siegel on Sep 27, 2017

Help LG Predict the Future

In partnership with LG Display, we are running a 6 month forecasting tournament about the high-end display industry.

By Ben Roesch on Sep 11, 2017

Introduction to Blockchain-based Prediction Markets Terminology

Real-money prediction markets are illegal in the U.S., but blockchain technology is giving rise to several digital currency based prediction markets based on Ethereum. Cultivate Labs defines common terminology associated with blockchain-based prediction markets.

By Ben Golden on Sep 06, 2017

New to Prediction Markets? Four Tips to Get Started.

Joining a prediction market or prediction pool can be intimidating. You may feel like you've plunged into a world of impossible questions, ongoing arguments, and have no idea where to start. You might think there's no way you could possibly add anything, or that your forecasts couldn't possible be better than anyone else's. But prediction markets don't have to be intimidating - here are four tips to get started.

By Cultivate Labs on Aug 08, 2017

Employee Engagement is the Key to the Future of Business

The relationship between employers and employees is changing as the drivers of employee satisfaction are changing. Employees are no longer driven solely by a paycheck - they want their work to have a purpose and to believe in what their organization offers to the world. Organizations must shift their focus from paychecks and soft benefits like casual dress codes and office ping pong tables to better engage employees by ensuring opportunities for purpose, learning, and flexibility in their jobs.

By Vanessa Pineda on Jul 25, 2017

Forecasting Shouldn't Be a Gamble. 5 Things to Do to Succeed with Crowdsourced Forecasting.

In more than 10 years of working with large companies on building prediction markets and other crowdsourced forecasting mechanisms, we’ve seen one common thread with the projects that are unsuccessful. Project owners overestimate the technology, and underestimate what it takes to engage people to make the technology successful. Avoid these 5 pitfalls to improve the success of your Cultivate Forecasts prediction market.

By Adam Siegel on Jul 20, 2017

Have you heard "I think we're doing something wrong" recently? If not, you're doing something wrong.

An open door policy isn't an effective feedback tool for leadership if you haven't created an organizational culture that's open to feedback. Your team can provide valuable insight and feedback about decisions, so actively work to create an environment in which employees are comfortable speaking up to leadership.

By Cultivate Labs on Jun 23, 2017

Travis Kalanick Ousted from Uber and the Erosion of the "Boys Club" Mentality as Good for Business

The ousting of Uber CEO Travis Kalanick on Tuesday is hardly surprising, though perhaps a bit out of step for both the revered ‘boys club’ who traditionally protect their own and the Silicon Valley culture that worships individuals who can, at all costs, create 10x returns on investment. But he should’ve seen it coming a long time ago, he brought it on himself after all...

By Adam Siegel on Jun 12, 2017

A Board's Check on its CEO - The Smell Test for Self-Interest vs. Leadership

Recently on a Sunday during my weekly 2 hour break from all things family related, I sat at one of my favorite coffee houses and read the Sunday New York Times. An article in the Business section particularly caught my attention: The Trump Effect on CEO Pay, and it got me thinking: should a Board of Directors have a better check on their CEO than either termination or bonuses tied to stock price? Could there be something put in place better for the company's long-term prospects?

By Brian Leslie on Jun 12, 2017

Determining the Accuracy of Prediction Markets

So, you asked a prediction market question, and the outcome is now known. The question has been resolved and winnings have been disbursed to the forecasters who held winning positions. Forecasters know how well they did based upon their profits in the question, and you know who your good forecasters were too. But how accurate was your organization at answering the question itself? There are several things to consider when thinking about accuracy of the prediction market:

By Adam Siegel on May 09, 2017

Attempted Manipulation of our French Election Prediction Market: Here's What We Learned

It may be easier to manipulate a real-money market than a play-money market. In a play-money market, the dumb-money can always be defeated with smart money and a little vigilance.

By Cultivate Labs on Apr 18, 2017

Multinational Energy Company Uses Crowdsourcing to Predict Impacting Factors of Oil & Gas Prices

A multinational energy company uses Cultivate Forecasts predict economic and geopolitical events that impact oil and gas prices. We find out why they decided to incorporate internal crowdsourcing within their business and how they have been so successful at engaging employee participation.

By Adam Siegel on Feb 28, 2017

Have your team predict your KPI's in real-time so you can actually meet your KPI's

As a small bootstrapped company, we're constantly worrying about our next stage of growth. And of course start up orthodoxy says any size business should have a few key performance metrics they track to be aware of how you're doing in the things that influence revenue, profit, and the culture you want to cultivate. But as we've learned, it's not enough to just track your KPI's, you need to forecast how you're going to do on them weeks and months ahead of time.

By Adam Siegel on Feb 16, 2017

Prendid - A Dutch Election Voorspellingsmarkt (Prediction Market)

With an election coming next month in the Netherlands, Marco van Schaardenburgh has successfully launched Prendid, a “voorspellingsmarkt” (prediction market) where players are predicting the outcome of the parliamentary elections. Joining is free and available to anyone globally.

By Adam Siegel on Feb 15, 2017

Testing Crowdsourced Decision Making at Broadspectrum

Broadspectrum, whose parent organization is Ferrovial, is an Australian company that operates in the Defence, Property, Social, Infrastructure, Resources and Industrial sectors, and provide Logistics, Facilities Management, Consulting, Construction, Care, Welfare, Operations, Maintenance, Well Servicing, and Business Support services. We recently completed a pilot project in their Defence line of business...

By Jess Price on Feb 07, 2017

Cultivate Community February 2017 Newsletter

Our February 2017 newsletter is out: Take a look!

By Vanessa Pineda on Nov 22, 2016

How Trump Stumped the Prediction Markets

Why the prediction markets signaled the wrong result for the Presidential election.

By Adam Siegel on Apr 25, 2016

Disrupting Product Development Using Internal Crowdsourcing

Using crowdsourcing only at the front-stages of the product development cycle means organizations are missing out on a big opportunity to further tap the wisdom and knowledge of the organization. Here's how you can use internal crowdsourcing across your entire development lifecycle.

By Adam Siegel on Jan 11, 2016

Uber's Costly Fail in Germany is Symptomatic of an Age-Old Problem in Big Companies

It is incredible that a company of Uber's size, with the experience they have entering new markets is still having the kinds of colossal failures they are having in Germany. But Uber is certainly not alone in costly missteps like this and billions are being lost every year. Yet a solution already exists: your employees.

By Ben Golden on Jan 08, 2016

Bayesian Reasoning and Prediction Markets

I enjoyed John Horgan's piece on Bayes Theorem for Scientific American. Bayes Theorem and Bayesian reasoning are highly applicable when thinking about forecasting and prediction markets; indeed, one prediction market built a Bayes Net into its platform. In this post I'll explain what Bayesian reasoning is, why it matters to prediction markets, and give a concrete (but semi-fictitious) example of how it's applied.

By Ben Golden on Dec 16, 2015

What Is Liquidity And How Does It Affect Prediction Markets?

Our sites use a popular prediction market algorithm called LMSR to determine how markets adjust when someone makes a forecast, and how user scores are affected by making correct and incorrect forecasts.

By Ben Golden on Dec 09, 2015

Forecasting Hard Questions

I've been trying to pick NFL game winners. I'm not using any complex analytical model; rather, I'm making decisions the way most sports bettors do--I watch some games, read the news, and use my judgment. I make each of my picks on SportsCast, which allows me to track my performance, interact with other forecasters, and track the performance of the prediction market--that is, the collective performance of all the forecasters on SportsCast.

By Ben Roesch on Dec 08, 2015

Measuring Accuracy in Prediction Markets and Opinion Poll/Pools

One of the first and most important questions we get from clients, forecasters, and consumers of our data is: “How accurate are these forecasts?”. In order to answer this question, we have utilized and built upon a widely accepted proper scoring rule, i.e. a way to measure accuracy for a probabilistic forecast.

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