I've been watching for the last few years the announcement, long delay, then recent launch of Augur, the decentralized, blockchain-based prediction market. First off, despite it taking a long time to launch, Augur finally did, and kudos to them for doing so. Building a prediction market from scratch is not easy, building a prediction market on top of immature technology is harder, and building a prediction market to be completely decentralized with smart contracts is downright scary.
Today, The New York Times published a piece, "Maybe the Gig Economy Isn't Changing Work After All," which debunked a popularly held belief that the rise of Uber and other gig work would cause a rift in the relationship between companies and workers. Our white paper on the future of work had predicted the article's newfound perspective. We want to hear your thoughts!
We're pairing up with Lending Club to sponsor a monthly event where
cybersecurity startups pitch their companies, and the audience gets to make
predictions on our prediction market about how they're going to do in the
next year in terms of fundraising, hiring, etc.
Could the 2018 NFL season finally be a turning point for the Cleveland Browns? For a team that’s had enough rocky starts on the gridiron these past few seasons, the front office rank and file is turning to a Kickstarter-like approach to give a jolt to innovation.
When an organization is undergoing dramatic change, much of the focus is rightfully placed on how leaders communicate to employees. But what's often forgotten is getting signals back from employees about how they're dealing with change. Are they supportive? What do they think should be prioritized? An internal idea crowdfunding campaign can be a powerful motivator to make employees part of the solution and give purpose when it's most needed.
Everyone who has worked in corporate America has seen or used it. The traffic light metaphor for status. Red, there’s significant problems with a project. Yellow, there are some issues, but we’re going to make it. Green, all is good. Unfortunately, this system is a disaster for decision making.
We're excited to be working with Idealantis, a startup based in Hyderabad, India on a prediction market pilot about the upcoming Gujarat state elections. Working with research organization People's Pulse, Idealantis has launched this test as a precursor to a country-wide effort for the general elections coming in 2019.
Gordon Gecko in Wall Street famously said: “Greed, for lack of a better word, is good. Greed captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Greed, in all of its forms; greed for life, for money, for love, for knowledge has marked the upward surge of mankind.”
Unfortunately the problem with greed is that it tends to lack humility.
Cultivate Labs CEO, Adam Siegel, recently spoke at the Institute for Business Forecasting and Planning and spent time hearing directly form attendees about the challenges they face. He shares lessons learned about the challenges sales and operations planners face in their roles, and how crowdsourced forecasting can alleviate them and improve their forecast accuracy and efficiency.
Real-money prediction markets are illegal in the U.S., but blockchain technology is giving rise to several digital currency based prediction markets based on Ethereum. Cultivate Labs defines common terminology associated with blockchain-based prediction markets.
Joining a prediction market or prediction pool can be intimidating. You may feel like you've plunged into a world of impossible questions, ongoing arguments, and have no idea where to start. You might think there's no way you could possibly add anything, or that your forecasts couldn't possible be better than anyone else's. But prediction markets don't have to be intimidating - here are four tips to get started.
The relationship between employers and employees is changing as the drivers of employee satisfaction are changing. Employees are no longer driven solely by a paycheck - they want their work to have a purpose and to believe in what their organization offers to the world. Organizations must shift their focus from paychecks and soft benefits like casual dress codes and office ping pong tables to better engage employees by ensuring opportunities for purpose, learning, and flexibility in their jobs.
The transition to flexible work styles has slowly been creeping into organizations for a long time, but acceptance and adoption of such practices has rapidly increased in past years due to rapid advancements in technology and a new generation flooding into the workforce. Flexible work styles will be far more common and accepted in the future. Is your organization prepared?
In more than 10 years of working with large companies on building prediction markets and other crowdsourced forecasting mechanisms, we’ve seen one common thread with the projects that are unsuccessful. Project owners overestimate the technology, and underestimate what it takes to engage people to make the technology successful. Avoid these 5 pitfalls to improve the success of your Cultivate Forecasts prediction market.
An open door policy isn't an effective feedback tool for leadership if you haven't created an organizational culture that's open to feedback. Your team can provide valuable insight and feedback about decisions, so actively work to create an environment in which employees are comfortable speaking up to leadership.
The future of work is changing, and your car's gas gauge is an indicator of how. In a future that will be increasingly measured, acquiring, understanding, and leveraging data in a timely fashion will determine who sinks and who swims.
As crowdsourcing becomes more widely adopted as a corporate innovation tool, the spotlight is on external crowdsourcing: engaging outside stakeholders such as experts, customers, and the general public to understand market demands and to collaborate on new product and service development. At the same time, organizations have recognized the innovative power of one more important constituency: their own employees.
Product design is a constantly evolving process as practices, trends, and expectations change. Cultivate Labs Director of Design, Jessica Price, explains her process for the redesign of Cultivate Ignite, a crowdfunding platform for use inside organizations.
The ousting of Uber CEO Travis Kalanick on Tuesday is hardly surprising, though perhaps a bit out of step for both the revered ‘boys club’ who traditionally protect their own and the Silicon Valley culture that worships individuals who can, at all costs, create 10x returns on investment. But he should’ve seen it coming a long time ago, he brought it on himself after all...
I recently had the opportunity to teach for Code Platoon, a non-profit coding camp that trains veterans to become software developers, and learned three major lessons about the fundamentals of coding, teaching, and new endeavors.
Recently on a Sunday during my weekly 2 hour break from all things family related, I sat at one of my favorite coffee houses and read the Sunday New York Times. An article in the Business section particularly caught my attention: The Trump Effect on CEO Pay, and it got me thinking: should a Board of Directors have a better check on their CEO than either termination or bonuses tied to stock price? Could there be something put in place better for the company's long-term prospects?
So, you asked a prediction market question, and the outcome is now known. The question has been resolved and winnings have been disbursed to the forecasters who held winning positions. Forecasters know how well they did based upon their profits in the question, and you know who your good forecasters were too. But how accurate was your organization at answering the question itself? There are several things to consider when thinking about accuracy of the prediction market: